FORECASTING OF POWERFUL SOLAR FLARES BY RADIO - OPTICAL CHARAC- TERISTICS

Abstract

In this paper we studied the modulation S-component of the microwave radiation of the sun at frequencies f=1-2Ghz and 2-4Ghz. For the study we used 40 isolated solar flares with power ≥ 2 points obtained from the radio telescope RT-12 of Institute of Ionosphere of the Republic of Kazakhstan and RT-22 radio astronomy station of Institute of Physics RAS in the period 1979- 1982 and 1989-1990. In active regions were studied low-frequency pulsations with characteristic time tx ≡ 5-70 minutes, using radio and spectrographic measurements of fluctuations in calm at- mosphere of the Sun. . In the study of state of pre- flare at the active centers of a growing group of spots, in the selected days of the bulletin "Solar data" we   visually analyzed   solar optical cards, and we calculated the numbers of spots in each group for 1-3 days before the outbreak with a force ≥ 2 points. The result is that the 3 days prior to the the start of the outbreak in the radio spectrum of the solar radio emission of centimeter range there has been increasing of ripple with period about tx ≥ 25 minutes. Using the methods of statistical analysis of dynamic chaos it was found that under certain conditions, with the approaching to the   outbreak, turbulent processes in the chromosphere of the Sun is gradually transformed into the deterministic process with a mean Tx ≥ 25 ± 2 min. We have conclusion about the possibility of using these pulsations as prognostic parameters of powerful solar flares.

Key words: evolution, orgraph, system analysis, intelligence.